Murder Stats JFK Witnesses

At the heart of The Plan, set for September publication, are questions that still surround the assassination of John F. Kennedy, this country’s first Catholic president, on Nov. 22, 1963. In my research, I discovered the following study by Richard Charnin, a mathematician who develops analytical software and who worked in the aerospace industry. It is presented here, with permission by its author. Take some time to read it, and please share your comments – just the thoughtful ones, please. Susan

JFK Witnesses Called to Testify: Actual vs Expected Unnatural Deaths (1964-1977)

Richard Charnin
August 18, 2013

This post will graphically prove a JFK conspiracy based on a probability analysis of 800 witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations in 1964-1977. It compares the statistically expected number of unnatural witness deaths (based on published mortality rates) to the actual numbers. The data and probabilities are displayed in the graphs below.

There were at least 56 suspicious deaths among approximately 800 witnesses who were called to testify at the 1964 Warren Commission, 1969 Garrison/Shaw trial, 1975 Church Senate and 1977 HSCA investigation. A least 34 were unnatural (23 homicides). Only 9 unnatural deaths would have been expected statistically. Using the 0.000210 weighted unnatural death rate, the probability is 1 in 700 trillion trillion. Normally, we would expect 1 homicide. Given the the 0.000084 homicide rate, the probability of 23 homicides is 1 in 284 billion trillion.

There were at least 29 suspicious deaths among the 552 witnesses who testified at the Warren Commission. At least 18 died unnaturally (11 were homicides). Only 6 unnatural deaths would have been expected statistically. The probability of at least 18 unnatural deaths is 1 in 162 billion. The probability of 11 homicides is 1 in 8.8 billion.

JFK Calc is an online spreadsheet that contains a database of 115 witnesses, probability calculations, graphs and links to other data sources. It has all the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness universe, b) official cause of death, c) average unnatural mortality rates and d) the relevant time period (1964-1977).

There were at least 115 suspicious deaths among an estimated 1400 JFK material witnesses of which at least 82 were unnatural: 46 homicides, 24 accidents, 8 suicides, 4 unknown. Given the 1964-1977 national average unnatural mortality rate (0.000825), 16 unnatural deaths would be expected. The probability of 82 unnatural deaths is E-31 (ZERO). It’s even lower (E-71) using the calculated JFK-weighted rate (0.000236). But how many “accidents”, “suicides” and suspicious “natural” deaths were actually homicides? The probabilities would be lower still. Even assuming a very conservative estimate of 82 unnatural deaths, the probability is virtually ABSOLUTE ZERO. It cannot go any lower.

The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination describes approximately 1400 individuals who were related in any way to the assassination; 94 are included in JFK Calc (66 unnatural deaths). But the 21 witnesses in JFK Calc that are not included in Who’s Who are very relevant.

It is important to note that the 1964-77 average homicide rate (1 in 12,150) was much lower than accidental deaths (1 in 1,660) and suicides (1 in 7,700). An analysis comparing unnatural JFK witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But there were 46 (57%) homicides among the 82 JFK witness unnatural deaths. If the analysis was restricted to just homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful. 

Unnatural Death Rates (1964-77) 
Homicide (46): 0.000084 (1 in 12,150)
Accident (24): 0.000601 (1 in 1,660)
Suicide (8): 0.000130 (1 in 7,700)
Unknown (4): 0.000010 (1 in 100,000)
Total (82): 0.000825 (1 in 1,200)

Natural Death Rates
Heart Disease (20): 0.0050 (1 in 200)
Cancer: 0.0020 (1 in 500)
Stroke: 0.0015 (1 in 667)
Other: 0.0010 (1 in 1000)
Total (33): 0.0095 (1 in 105)

18 unnatural deaths among 552 Warren Commission witnesses
Normally, we would expect 6 unnatural deaths (unweighted).
Using the 0.000261 weighted WC witness rate, the probability is essentially ZERO:
P = 6.16E-12 = 1- POISSON (17, 2.00, false)
P = 1 in 162 billion

34 unnatural deaths among an estimated 800 witnesses called to testify in four investigations
Normally, we would expect 9 unnatural deaths.
Using the 0.000210 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = 1.28E-27 = POISSON (34, 2.30, true)
P = 1 in 700 trillion trillion

23 homicides among 800 witnesses called to testify in four investigations
Normally, we would expect 1 homicide.
Using the 0.000084 homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = 3.52E-24 = POISSON (23, 0.94, true)
P = 1 in 284 billion trillion

82 unnatural deaths among 1400 material witnesses
Normally, we would expect 16 unnatural deaths.
Using the 0.000825 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = 2.60E-31 = POISSON (82, 16.17, false)
P = 1 in 3.8 million trillion trillion

But using the weighted rate (0.000236), the probability is even lower:
P = 6.23E-71 = POISSON (82, 4.62, false) 

UNNATURAL DEATHS
U - unweighted average national unnatural rate
W - weighted average JFK witness unnatural rate

Years n Prob Expected Rate Probability
1400 Material Witnesses

1 18 6.55E-16 1.15 0.000825 U 1 in 1500 trillion
1 18 6.48E-29 0.21 0.000148 W ZERO
3 41 3.42E-29 3.56 0.000847 U ""
3 41 9.66E-52 0.94 0.000224 W ""
14 82 2.60E-31 16.17 0.000825 U ""
14 82 6.23E-71 4.62 0.000236 W ""

552 Warren Commission witnesses
3 10 2.26E-11 0.40 0.000245 W 1 in 44 billion
14 18 6.16E-12 2.00 0.000259 W 1 in 162 billion

800 Witnesses in 4 Investigations
14 34 1.28E-27 2.35 0.000210 W 1 in 700 trillion trillion

HOMICIDES
Years n Prob Expected Rate Probability
1400 Material Witnesses

1 14 3.71E-27 0.79 0.000056 ZERO
3 24 4.00E-39 2.49 0.000059 ""
14 46 2.88E-49 1.64 0.000084 ""

552 Warren Commission witnesses
3 6 2.19E-10 0.10 0.000059 1 in 4.5 billion
14 11 6.31E-12 0.49 0.000084 1 in 158 billion

800 Witnesses in 4 Investigations
14 23 3.52E-24 0.94 0.000084 1 in 284 billion trillion

 

Tags: Executive ActiongraphsHSCAJFK conspiracy proved mathematicallyjfk witness deathsJFK witness graphsunnatural mortality ratesWarren Commission

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